Experts on Korea in the United States warn that the U.S.-South Korea alliance is facing a silent crisis. Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), raised this concern during an online CSIS panel discussion on Friday.
Cha pointed to several signs of strain, including the U.S. Department of Energy’s recent classification of South Korea as a “sensitive country” amid a leadership vacuum in Seoul, a lack of high-level communication between the two nations, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s decision to exclude South Korea from his Asia tour.
He also predicted that if Elbridge Colby is appointed as the next Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, he and the Pentagon may push for greater strategic flexibility of U.S. forces stationed in South Korea.
Cha suggested that a potential second Trump administration might seek to expand the role of U.S. troops beyond deterring North Korea to include other regional contingencies, such as a crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
He also addressed concerns over rising defense cost-sharing demands on South Korea and ongoing tensions with North Korea. “The U.S.-South Korea alliance is facing a ‘quiet crisis’ that few are openly discussing,” he emphasized.
Michelle Ye Hee Lee, Tokyo Bureau Chief for The Washington Post, highlighted the confusion in South Korea following the U.S. Energy Department’s designation of it as a sensitive country. She noted that this uncertainty might have been avoided with stronger leadership.
Lee also pointed out that South Korea’s political instability has weakened its confidence in handling relations with the United States.
She reported mixed reactions to Hyundai Motor Group’s recent announcement of a $21 billion investment plan in the U.S. She noted that some view this as a concession to U.S. pressure, contrasting it with the more assertive approaches taken by the European Union and Canada.
