The aftermath of the first presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump was intense.
Held at the CNN studio in Atlanta on the night of June 27, the debate saw Biden appearing beleaguered and hesitant, which Trump, through a mix of lies, cornered Biden.
Prior to the debate, Biden was setting the stage for a comeback in the pre-debate battleground states. However, following the debate, speculation about the possibility of his replacement began to circulate
Despite Biden’s impassioned declarations of victory during his campaign events on June 28-29, where he appeared with his shirt buttons undone, there is growing talk within the Democratic Party about replacing him as the candidate.
Difference With The Obama-Romney Debate
On the 29th, The Hill reported that there is growing sentiment within the Democratic camp to replace Biden as the candidate for the November 5 election.
Some have drawn parallels to former President Barack Obama, who lost his first debate against Republican candidate Mitt Romney in 2012 but ultimately won the election. This perspective suggests that Biden’s debate loss may not be as critical as it initially seems.
However, The Hill reported that there are widespread concerns within the Democratic Party that this situation differs significantly from Obama’s loss.
A prominent Democratic donor stated, “This is the reality. It’s different from the Obama-Romney debate.” He added that the defeat in this debate was “a million times more devastating” than previous ones, indicating it is time to consider questions about a possible replacement.
David Axelrod, a former advisor to President Obama, echoed similar sentiments on CNN. He noted that while Biden regained strength later in the debate, his voice was weak in the early stages and he seemed confused.
Axelrod also predicted an uptick in demands for Biden to step down as a candidate.
Support Ratings Crucial
The Democratic leadership views future approval ratings as crucial.
While Biden has no plans to step down from the candidacy, there is an expectation that if his approval ratings decline, party leadership will have to intervene.
The popular podcast Pod Save America, led by former Obama associates, has centered its discussion on candidate replacement.
Jon Favreau, a former senior speechwriter for Obama, stated, “The best thing Biden did was propose a debate before the (official confirmation of the) convention,” suggesting that Biden has allowed the Democratic Party to reassess its candidate, potentially enhancing their chances of victory.
Political Hydrogen Bomb
Bob Woodward, the renowned Washington Post journalist famous for his role in the resignation of President Richard Nixon with the Watergate exposure, characterized Biden’s debate performance as a political hydrogen bomb during his appearance on MSNBC.
He emphasized the importance of the public receiving current information rather than waiting for memoirs or similar accounts years later.
Woodward concluded that based on Biden’s current appearance, it is “inevitable” that Biden will step down from the election race.
The New York Times (NYT), traditionally leaning towards the Democratic Party, also urged Biden to withdraw as the candidate.
On the 28th, the NYT editorial board expressed concern that Biden looked weak and seemed unable to withstand Trump’s provocations and lies. Above all, they noted that Biden struggled even to finish his sentences, emphasizing that he no longer had sufficient reason to run as the Democratic candidate in this election.
Market and Gambling, Betting on Trump Victory
The New York Stock Exchange and betting companies seem to have determined that Trump is almost certain to win this election following the TV debate.
Private health insurance companies, which would replace the public health system, all rose sharply on the 28th. This is because the expectation is that private health insurance will benefit if Trump is re-elected.
UnitedHealth Group soared by $22.82 (4.69%) to $509.26, and Humana jumped by $11.55 (3.19%) to $373.65. CVS Health also closed at $59.06, up $0.70 (1.20%). CVS has struggled this year, falling 25%, and Humana has dropped 18.4%. UnitedHealth’s decline is not as significant at 3.3%.
Betting companies have also firmly set their sights on a Trump victory.
According to Election Betting Odds (EBO), betting companies have increased the probability of Trump winning this election from 55.2% to 59.8%.
On the other hand, the probability of a Biden victory plummeted from 36.4% before the debate to 21.7% after.
