Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Federal Reserve Eyes Rate Cut as U.S. Employment Growth Falters

AFP

The number of new private jobs in the U.S. in June was confirmed to be 150,000 on the 3rd (local time).

The number of new jobs in the U.S. private sector employment rose 150,000 in June according to local reports on Wednesday. This figure followed the 157,000 increase recorded in May and came in below the market expectations.

In particular, it fell short of the 160,000 that economists had predicted.

The figure indicates signs of employment market cooling amid a slowdown in the inflationary pressure. Despite the rise, it is the lowest monthly new employment figure recorded since January this year.

Commenting on the survey’s findings, “Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based,” said Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP.

Richardson continued, “Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.”

Meanwhile, wage growth has been confirmed to be slowing.

The annual pay of employees who have not remained in their jobs logged a 4.9% increase on year. The figure is the lowest in about three years since August 2021.

The annual pay raise of those who changed jobs was 7.7%, which was higher than those who stayed, but lower than the previous increase rate.

This suggests that wage growth in the U.S. is losing momentum.

Whether U.S. employment is slowing enough to reduce inflation pressure will become clearer in the employment trends for June, which the Department of Labor will announce on Friday.

Economists predicted that the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in the U.S. in June fell significantly to 200,000 from 272,000 in May.

ADP’s private employment and the Department of Labor’s employment trends often show differences, with gaps being significantly large at times.

In May, the Department of Labor’s new job creation count was 229,000, 72,000 more than the ADP count.

Meanwhile, the financial market continued its smooth sail amid the heightened market anticipation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September as the labor market shows signs of cooling.

The New York stock market continued its record-high rally.

About an hour before the trade closed, the S&P 500 logged 5,526, 0.3% higher than the day before, and the Nasdaq had risen 0.7% to 18,150. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly to 39,257, 0.2 % less than the previous session’s close.

Meanwhile, treasury yields continued their downward trends.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.075 % points from the previous day to record 4.36%.

The New York stock market will close three hours earlier than usual at 1 PM on the day before Independence Day on July 4.

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