Amidst a plethora of economic uncertainties including the upcoming November elections, the speed of car sales in the United States is expected to wind down. Before deciding on their purchase, individual consumers are likely to wait for the results of the November elections and the direction of the next administration.
On the 25th (local time), CNBC cited Cox Automotive (Cox) and predicted that U.S. car sales in the second half of this year will increase by about 1.3% compared to the same period last year, reaching 15.7 million units. Sales in the first half of the year increased by 2.9% compared to the first half of last year.
Cox estimated that while car sales will increase this year, the purchases would be made by business owners using them for commercial purposes, rather than individual consumers. Cox estimated that the sales growth rates for rental cars, leases, and commercial vehicles are recording double digits this year. Conversely, individual consumers are estimated to compromise about 79% of total sales. This indicates a decrease of about 9%p compared to 2021.
The reason why general individual consumers are hesitant to buy cars is presumably due to expensive car prices and high interest rates. Cox Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough expressed concerns that “it may not be able to maintain the same growth rate in the second half of this year as in the first half.” He stated, “Along with market uncertainties, many consumers are hesitating to make the purchase, expecting better sales conditions after the November presidential election.
This trend can work as both an opportunity and a crisis for major car manufacturers. According to Cox, the brand that sold the most new cars in the United States in the first half of this year was General Motors (GM). Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, and Honda followed behind. CNBC pointed out that GM’s sales in the first half decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year, while Toyota increased by 16.3%. Then, it speculated that Toyota could reclaim its title as the top-selling brand in the U.S. market sales, as it did in 2021.
US Tesla and Stellantis showed poor performances with sales decreases of 14.3% and 16.5% respectively in the first half of this year. In particular, Stellantis, which was ranked 4th in sales last year, fell to 6th place in the first half of this year, surpassed by Honda.
