Analysts project that the international gold price, which surged significantly last year, will continue its upward trend in 2025.
However, Wall Street experts anticipate a more modest increase than last year’s 27% jump.
According to a recent survey conducted by the Financial Times (FT) on Wednesday among analysts and gold refining industry insiders, the consensus forecast for gold prices by year-end is $2,795 per ounce (31.1g), representing a 7% increase from last year.
The World Gold Council (WGC) echoes this sentiment and predicts a continued rise in gold prices, albeit slower than last year.
This year’s gold price rally is expected to be fueled by increased purchases from central banks seeking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar.
Other factors that could increase gold prices include potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, rising U.S. government debt under a possible second Trump administration, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Henrik Marks, Global Head of Trading at Heraeus Precious Metals, believes central bank policies will stimulate gold purchases, potentially pushing prices to $2,950 per ounce.
Marks also suggests that a second Trump administration could support gold prices, citing expectations of increased U.S. government debt, a weaker dollar, and higher inflation, regardless of specific economic policy decisions.
Societe Generale notes that increased fiscal spending under the Trump administration and heightened global geopolitical uncertainties could further bolster gold prices.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by central bank demand and anticipated additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
In contrast, Barclays and Macquarie offer a more bearish outlook, predicting a 4% decline in gold prices to around $2,500 per ounce.
Global central banks purchased 694 tonnes of gold from January to September last year. After a six-month pause, the People’s Bank of China announced that it would resume purchases in November.
The Federal Reserve’s three interest rate cuts, including the one in September last year, supported gold prices. Future rate cut decisions are expected to be crucial in determining the direction of gold prices.
However, the Fed has signaled a slower pace of interest rate cuts for this year.
