Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Is Trump’s Diplomacy Risking U.S. Alliances in Asia?

AP Yonhap News

Claims have been raised that former U.S. President and Republican candidate Donald Trump could negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un under the condition of withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea.

On May 27 (GMT), in a joint column between Sue Mi Terry, a senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and Max Boot, a columnist at the Washington Post (WP), expressed concern that “Trump’s return could have serious consequences for the overall U.S. alliance, including South Korea and Japan.” Boot and Terry argued that “Trump is an unpredictable figure.”

They predicted that “Trump would overturn the alliance between South Korea, U.S., and Japan simply because Biden brought it about and would not use diplomatic assets to save it.”

They stated that “Trump is obsessed with the defense cost-sharing of U.S. troops in Korea” and “it seems that he doesn’t even see the fact that South Korea is sharing 2.7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as defense costs, which is more than NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)”. They added, “Trump has previously suspended U.S.-South Korea joint exercises and doesn’t seem likely to bear the cost of U.S.-South Korea-Japan joint exercises.” They also speculated, “If Kim Jong Un is smart, he can sweeten his proposal a bit more than he did at the Hanoi summit and benefit from Trump’s re-election.”

They explained that Trump could negotiate with Kim Jong Un even if it involves withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea, and if Kim Jong Un provokes again, he could go in a completely different direction, expressing the past quote “fire and fury.”

They also evaluated, “The tripartite cooperation between South Korea, U.S., and Japan is one of the bright aspects in the dark international situation from Gaza to Ukraine.” They further evaluated that “the Camp David Declaration of the three leaders was a turning point that opened a new era of strengthening deterrence against North Korea and China.” They added that China is trying to prevent an alliance between the three countries.

Boot and Terry expressed concern by saying, “The best alternative to counteract the anti-American alliance of North Korea, China, and Russia is the alliance between South Korea, U.S., and Japan.” They further explained, “Since this relationship was formed very recently, the relation could be threatened if the leaders of each country are replaced.” They mentioned this while pointing out that President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea, U.S. President Joe Biden, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are all suffering from low approval ratings.

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