“If former President Trump is re-elected, the price of Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 by 2025.”
This isn’t just a rumor on social media. It’s a statement made in an investment note sent to clients by Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered (SC). If this happens, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could reach $4 trillion.
With the U.S. election just six months away, Bitcoin has emerged as the center of attention. While the Biden administration emphasizes the regulation in the virtual asset market, former President Trump has been showing a rather favorable stance towards virtual assets.
According to the virtual asset industry on the 10th, Standard Chartered sees the target price of Bitcoin at $150,000 by the end of this year and $200,000 by the end of next year. According to CoinMarketCap, a global coin market platform, the price of Bitcoin stood at $62,890 as of 9:30 a.m. that day. This suggests that the price of Bitcoin could triple in a year and a half. Standard Chartered predicts that the intensified U.S. financial crisis may lead to a weak dollar era, opposite from the current situation. This means that the monetization of debt by the U.S. government, currently struggling with excessive debt, could worsen when former President Trump is elected.
SC pointed out that the size of the government bonds issued during the Trump administration was much larger than that of the Biden administration. During Trump’s term, the annual average net sales of U.S. government bonds amounted to $207 billion, while it was only $55 billion during President Biden’s term.
SC predicts that as trust in the U.S. bond market decreases, the withdrawal of buyers could accelerate. If the dollar weakens, investors are more likely to look for alternative investments, which could increase the demand for virtual assets such as Bitcoin. Kendrick believes that “the market will consider Bitcoin as a good hedge in the event of a decline in trust in U.S. bonds.”
SC predicts that the Trump administration will approach the virtual asset market more favorably. To support the prediction, he suggested that although former President Trump once called Bitcoin a “scam,” he has recently been more supportive.
In fact, in an interview last March, former President Trump promised that if he were re-elected, he would “sometimes allow payments through Bitcoin” and acknowledged that “Bitcoin is another form of currency when you think about it.”
On the other hand, the Biden administration continues to emphasize a regulatory policy towards virtual assets. On the 8th (local time), the U.S. administration announced that President Biden would veto a bill that allows financial companies in strict regulatory areas to custody Bitcoin and virtual assets.
Previously, President Biden signed an executive order directing government-level research and analysis of virtual assets, laying the groundwork for the U.S. to maintain leadership in the global virtual asset market. However, the Biden administration proposed an idea to impose a 44% tax on virtual asset transactions just last month, causing backlash from virtual asset investors. It also revealed a budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year (October 2024 to September 2025) that includes imposing taxes on virtual asset mining and applying a wash sale rule to virtual assets like stocks to eradicate intentional loss sales for tax avoidance.
Virtual asset experts also agree that Trump’s re-election would create a more favorable environment for the virtual asset market.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, argued, “The Biden administration is a threat to the digital asset field. They are trying to make DeFi and self-custody illegal services in the U.S. before the election in November. If former President Trump wins the election, it will greatly help the spread of digital assets.”
John Reed Stark, former Chief of the SEC’s Internet Enforcement Office, also said, “The Trump administration’s SEC will take a much more favorable stance on virtual assets than the Biden administration’s SEC.”
According to a survey by Digital Currency Group (DCG), the parent company of Grayscale, 20% of U.S. voters cited virtual assets as one of the main issues in the upcoming election.
