The U.S. economy is exhibiting robust growth, fueled by a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investments. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecasts upward for both the U.S. and global economies, citing the expansion of AI and tech-focused investments as a shield against economic deceleration amid inflationary pressures.
On Tuesday, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated that the substantial influx of investments in AI and advanced technology is sustaining the momentum of the U.S. economy, which has eased financial conditions and increased consumer wealth effects. Gourinchas emphasized that the strong growth of the U.S. economy is largely driven by AI investments and technological advancements.
Since the beginning of the year, the stock prices of major U.S. tech companies such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and Oracle have soared, propelling the stock market to consecutive record highs. While this fervor for investment acts as a catalyst for both consumption and further investment, some are raising concerns about potential market overheating.
Gourinchas observed that valuations are not yet at the excessive levels of the dot-com bubble, but already more than halfway there. He explained that although consumers feel wealthier due to rising stock prices, the actual production has not increased, adding that this is essentially a promise about the future and a factor that intensifies demand pressures.
The IMF projects a 2.0% growth rate for the U.S. economy this year. Although this represents a slight deceleration from last year’s (2024) 2.8%, it remains the highest among the G7 nations. The growth forecast for 2026 has been marginally raised to 2.1% from the July projection. Earlier this year, the IMF had anticipated a 1.8% growth rate for the U.S., but now credits the surge in AI-related investments for cushioning against downward economic pressures.
Meanwhile, the IMF has increased its global economic growth forecast to 3.2% for this year – an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from its July outlook. This adjustment reflects a reduced concern over the economic fallout from the trade wars of the Trump administration. The IMF expects the global economy to experience a slight slowdown from 3.3% in 2024 but to sustain steady growth. The global growth rate for 2026 is projected at 3.1%.
The IMF noted that the global economy is exhibiting remarkable resilience amid uncertain external conditions. It particularly highlighted the expansion of U.S. technology investments as a cornerstone of global growth. In contrast, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) maintains a more conservative outlook, projecting a 1.8% growth rate for the U.S.
pride@fnnews.com Lee Byeong-cheol, Special Correspondent
