A new poll released on Thursday shows Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, holding a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, within the margin of error.
The Economist commissioned the YouGov survey from September 29 to October 1. According to the results, Harris garnered 48% of voter support, while Trump followed closely with 45%, leaving Harris with a 3-point lead. However, the poll’s margin of error is ±3.2 percentage points, indicating a statistical tie between the two candidates.
When respondents were asked who they believed would win the 2024 election, 40% chose Harris, while 35% predicted Trump. Harris also held a significant lead among women, with a 10-point advantage, while Trump led among male respondents by 4 points.
The survey also revealed that a majority, 57%, said they were ready for the United States to elect its first female president, while 23% disagreed.
While Harris leads nationally within the margin of error, Trump appears to have the edge in critical Rust Belt states. A separate survey by the Trafalgar Group, conducted from September 28 to 30 among 1,086 likely voters in Michigan, showed Trump leading Harris by 2.2 percentage points, 46.9% to 44.7% (with a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points). Only 3.5% of respondents in this state said they would vote for a third-party candidate, and 4.9% remained undecided.
In a similar survey conducted by Trafalgar Group in Wisconsin during the same period, Trump received 47.1% support while Harris secured 46.0%, showing Trump slightly ahead of Harris (margin of error ±2.9 percentage points).
Among the respondents, 3.1% said they would vote for a third-party candidate, and 3.8% were still undecided.
