A recent poll revealed that former U.S. President Donald Trump, who survived a shooting on the 13th, has a 5% higher favorability rating than his election rival, President Joe Biden. While the two candidates’ favorability ratings did not significantly change immediately after the shooting, Trump’s nomination as the presidential candidate and Biden’s quarantine have gradually widened the gap.
U.S. CBS Broadcasting released the results of a public opinion poll in collaboration with multinational polling agency YouGov on the 18th. The poll surveyed 2,247 registered American voters between the 16th and 18th following a recent shooting. The results showed that Trump’s favorability rating increased to 52%, up from 50% before the shooting on the 3rd. Meanwhile, Democratic President Biden’s favorability rating dropped by 1% to 47% during the same period.
CBS highlighted that this is the first time in 20 years that a Republican presidential candidate’s favorability rating has surpassed that of a Democratic candidate in a nationwide poll and the first time in 30 years that the leading margin has exceeded 5%.
The change in favorability ratings was minor immediately after Trump’s shooting. In a poll conducted by U.S. market research firm Morning Consult among 2,045 registered voters on the 15th, Trump led Biden by 1%, within the margin of error (2%), with a favorability rating of 46%.
On the same day, Trump was officially nominated as the presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention. Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, a known hardline conservative, was selected as his vice presidential candidate. Biden began an aggressive campaign in Las Vegas, Nevada, on the 16th but entered quarantine procedures after being diagnosed with COVID-19 on the 17th.
Local media reported growing pressure within the Democratic Party for President Biden to withdraw from the candidate race due to ongoing controversy over his age and cognitive decline. On the 18th, The Washington Post (WP) quoted insiders, stating that former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi told some House leadership members that Biden is close to giving up his candidacy.
If Biden withdraws, Vice President Kamala Harris will likely replace him as the candidate. According to a poll on the 18th, Trump led Harris by 3% in a hypothetical match-up, with a favorability rating of 51% to Harris’s 48%.
