Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Is Samsung Losing its Edge? The AI Memory Market Crisis Explained

Yonhap News

On Tuesday, Samsung Electronics’ stock hit a new 52-week low. The tech giant’s shares closed at 53,000 won (approximately $38), down 3.64% from the previous day’s trading. This marks the lowest closing price since July 10, 2020, when it traded at 52,700 won (around $37.60), a slump not seen in over four years. 

Foreign investors sold a net 349.7 billion won (approximately $249.3 million) of Samsung Electronics shares on the same day. Since September 3, foreign investors have been net sellers for 43 out of the past 45 trading days, with the exception of two days, October 28 and 29.

The total net sales by foreign investors during this period have now surpassed a staggering 14.6 trillion won (roughly $10.4 billion).

Market analysts are increasingly concerned that Samsung’s current struggles may be linked to its lagging position in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, a key component in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) sector. As the demand for AI-related technologies soars, HBM is becoming a critical component in supporting the performance of AI applications. Samsung’s inability to close the gap with its competitors in this space has raised concerns about its future prospects.

To make matters worse, Samsung is facing new uncertainties stemming from the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The potential return of former President Donald Trump has emerged as a new headwind for the company.

A second Trump administration could undo key semiconductor support policies introduced under President Biden, creating fresh challenges for Samsung. This includes the growing possibility of U.S. semiconductor tariffs, which could further complicate Samsung’s business prospects in the U.S. market.

Wall Street analysts suggest that for Samsung to recover, it must close the gap in HBM development with its competitors, particularly in the face of mounting challenges in the semiconductor sector.

Kim Kwang Jin, an analyst at Hanwha Securities, predicts a tough road ahead for the company. “We expect the memory market to enter a slowdown phase next year as demand decoupling intensifies. This will significantly diminish the upward momentum for general memory prices,” Kim said. He added, “While closing the gap with competitors in the HBM market is critical, it’s still too early to make optimistic projections at this point.”

Chae Min Sook, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, highlighted the changing dynamics in the memory market. “In past memory upcycles, Samsung Electronics was able to thrive by absorbing rising demand through early and aggressive investments,” Chae explained. “However, the current market is different. With strong demand limited to specific AI-related sectors and overall IT demand remaining weak, Samsung’s mature process capacity—once a key strength—has now become a cost burden, contributing less to revenue.” 

Chae emphasized that Samsung needs to adapt its strategies to the evolving market conditions, urging the company to rethink its approach if it hopes to remain competitive.

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