An election expert has predicted that there’s a 66% chance former President Donald Trump will be the victor of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November.
On June 26, election expert Nate Silver stated on his political website, Silver Bulletin, that Trump is expected to secure 65.7% of the electoral votes in the November election, defeating President Joe Biden who is projected to obtain 33.7%.
Silver added that the overall vote count could see Biden leading Trump 51% to 49%.
Silver also suggested that there is a possibility of a tie in the electoral college with both major candidates securing 269 seats. This is due to the possibility of independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. winning in some states.
However, even in such a case, he explained that the 12th Amendment would favor Trump, thanks to the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
Silver, who established the political statistics site FiveThirtyEight (538) in 2008, also stated that this election would not be a close race but would produce a one-sided result.
FiveThirtyEight is currently operated by ABC News.
According to Silver, Trump is leading in seven of the battleground states.
Silver said that while Biden is not significantly behind Trump, the election is not expected to be a close competition.
He suggested that if Biden shows progress in the first presidential debate on June 27 or even cedes the presidential candidacy to someone else like Vice President Kamala Harris, it could increase the chances of a Democratic candidate’s victory. However, he pointed out that this is not a good idea.
Silver started gaining attention in the political world when he accurately predicted the winners in 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election.
Despite his anti-Trump stance, he emphasized that polls are often inaccurate, citing the 2016 and 2020 elections where Trump outperformed poll predictions.
