A recent study predicts that by 2061, China will experience an unprecedented number of annual deaths, reaching up to 19 million. This number is comparable to the total population of the Netherlands last year, which was approximately 18 million.
According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), a research team from Fudan University in China published these findings in the bi-monthly journal Population Research at the end of May.
Researchers have predicted that China, the world’s second-largest economy, will experience a peak in annual deaths by 2061, with 19 million people dying each year. This spike is attributed to the rapid aging of the population combined with a sharp decline in birth rates, exacerbating the demographic crisis. The term “demographic dividend” refers to the economic boost when the proportion of the working-age population is larger than that of the non-working-age population.
The SCMP reported that earlier this month, a finding from the Fudan University research team sparked heated discussions on Weibo, one of China’s most popular social media platforms, earlier this month.
The researchers observed that while the mass deaths of older adults can be seen as a natural consequence of demographic transition, the rapid and unprecedented scale of the peak in deaths in China poses significant challenges for individuals, families, and society at large.
The researchers emphasized that the baby boomer generation, born before the one-child policy of the 1980s, is aging rapidly. They predict that the death surge will become more apparent starting in 2040. Therefore, China must implement measures to address these demographic challenges.
The number of newborns in China fell below 10 million in both 2022 and 2023, marking two consecutive years of decline.
This is the first time the number of newborns has dropped below 10 million since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
In contrast, the number of deaths in China last year exceeded 11.1 million.
The researchers predict that despite the Chinese government’s supportive policies, the birth rate will continue to remain low. This trend is driven by a shrinking childbearing population and changing attitudes toward having children.
They also pointed out that while the number of deaths will eventually decrease in the 22nd century due to the ongoing decline in the birth rate, a surge in fatalities will pose a significant problem for China by the end of the 21st century.
To prevent social issues such as expensive deaths and costly graves, they recommended that China expedite the improvement of medium-to-long-term funeral services and the development of hospice care systems to enhance the quality of life.
