A securities market analysis said that if former President Trump succeeds in returning to the White House, a further downward revision in annual electric vehicle sales estimates in the US is inevitable. On July 15, 2024, Han Byeong Hwa, a Eugene Investment & Securities researcher, lowered the forecast for annual EV sales in the US in 2024 from 1.942 million units to 1.777 million units. At the same time, he said, “Electric vehicle sales in the US in June 2024 were 120,000 units, down 3.8% from the previous year,” and he added, “Tesla, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz continued to perform poorly, and Stellantis’ plug-in hybrid sales growth is also understood to have slowed.”
As the recent high growth of hybrids compared to EVs continues, the US government’s solution to reverse this is policy intervention, but the current situation is not easy. If Trump returns to power, policy expectations will likely be dampened.
Han explained that since hybrids are internal combustion engine vehicles, policy interventions like fuel efficiency regulations and taxation are necessary to curb their sales. He noted that the Biden administration had finalized fuel efficiency regulations that bolstered the role of hybrids, leading to a 9-12% reduction in the projected electric vehicle (EV) sales in the U.S. compared to earlier estimates. Han predicted that EV sales would likely decline further during his term if Trump were to be elected. He recalled that during Trump’s first term, EV sales had dropped for two years due to effectively nullifying fuel efficiency regulations. He also mentioned that Trump has committed to abolishing Biden’s fuel efficiency regulations within the first year if re-elected.
He also predicted that it would take additional time for the downward trend in interest rates to drive increased demand for EVs. Han said, “For battery companies to see a steady rise in stock prices, the growth of the EV market in Europe and the US must enter an expansion phase again.” He explained, “Considering that Trump is highly likely to return to power, the timing of the expansion of the EV market growth will only be possible after the US presidential election.”
