President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un since taking office.
Recently, Trump revealed that behind-the-scenes communication is already taking place, signaling that talks between Washington and Pyongyang may soon resume. During Trump’s first term, South Korea played a key role as a mediator in U.S.-North Korea negotiations. However, growing concerns suggest Seoul may be sidelined this time. This is partly due to the severed inter-Korean relations limiting South Korea’s involvement but also because Russia has emerged as a potential key mediator given its strengthened alliance with North Korea.
On March 31, in response to a question about contacting Kim, Trump responded, “We have, there is communication,” and added at some point, he will do something. His remarks indicate that unofficial dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea may already be underway. Although the U.S. government has remained quiet regarding foreign leaders’ statements, some experts argue that South Korea’s exclusion from the talks has already begun.
South Korea May Have Been Pushed to the Sidelines
Professor Yang Moo Jin of the University of North Korean Studies noted that it’s quite possible that U.S. officials such as Special Envoy Richard Grenell or Deputy National Security Advisor Alex Wong may have reached out to North Korea’s mission in New York via phone or email. While he said there is no evidence of in-person meetings, he believes there is a growing push for active engagement.
Chair Professor Nam Sung Wook of Sookmyung Women’s University noted that Trump and Kim may already be exchanging letters, and it appears that the content of these communications is not being shared with South Korea. Even if talks resume, Seoul may only be informed after the fact. Given the failure of past negotiations, Trump seems to prefer sidelining South Korea.
Trump Acknowledges Ties between North Korea and Russia
If South Korea is excluded from the U.S.-North Korea dialogue, many experts believe Russia could step in as a mediator, leveraging its growing influence over Pyongyang. The North Korea-Russia relationship has deepened significantly since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, with increased military cooperation and reports of North Korean troop deployments.
Experts predict that even if the war ends through U.S.-led mediation, the alliance between the two countries will continue.
Despite ongoing peace efforts, North Korea has referred to Russia as comrades and has sent more troops in support. Kim is also expected to attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9.
Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, remarked that even after the Ukraine war, the North Korea-Russia relationship will likely expand into long-term military and economic cooperation. Considering Trump’s admiration for Putin, it’s plausible that he might welcome Russian mediation in future U.S.-North Korea talks. Hong warned that Russia’s growing role could put South Korea at a disadvantage in the diplomatic process.
Professor Lim Eun Jung of Kongju National University also speculated that once the Ukraine crisis stabilizes, Putin may step forward as a mediator.
She pointed out that while China led the six-party talks in the past, Russia now holds more sway over North Korea.
North Korea is also making efforts to improve its relationship with China. As China and Russia grow closer, there is speculation that the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia may gather for Russia’s Victory Day celebrations.
This year marks major anniversaries—such as the 75th or 80th—of key events in both North Korea and China, which authoritarian regimes tend to view as particularly meaningful. As a result, there are numerous opportunities for the three countries to unite throughout the year.
While scholars believe a formal trilateral alliance is unlikely, they expect bilateral ties between the countries to strengthen. If U.S.-North Korea talks resume, the involvement of China and Russia could shape the process according to their respective interests, raising potential security risks for South Korea.
