The stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group, which operates the Truth Social, a social media platform founded by former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, soared nearly 20% in just one day. Trump Media is considered a theme stock tied to Trump and is viewed as a barometer for U.S. presidential election trends.
On Monday, Trump Media’s New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock surged 18.47%, closing at $29.95, up from the previous session. Trading volume also skyrocketed, with 57 million shares traded in a single day.
At one point during the trading session, Trump Media’s stock price even exceeded $30. Compared to its all-time high of $79 recorded in March, the current stock price is 38% of that peak. However, after hitting a record low of $12.15 on September 23, the stock has rebounded by 146.5% since then. Trump Media’s stock price has fluctuated in response to Trump’s election chances.
The surge in Trump Media’s stock is attributed to predictions from election betting sites such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt, pointing to Trump’s increasing likelihood of winning the election. These three major election betting sites have all raised Trump’s chances of victory since October 10. On that day, Polymarket assessed Trump’s chances of winning at 55.2%, while PredictIt pegged it at 54%.
Polymarket predicted that Trump would win in six out of seven battleground states, excluding Nevada.
Fortune magazine noted that analyzing the stock market might be a better approach to predicting the election outcome than relying on polling results. It also mentioned that election polling has been repetitive historically.
Trump Media’s stock price cannot rise solely based on Truth Social’s revenue. The stock price heavily depends on Trump’s chances of winning the election, as he holds a 57% stake in Truth Social. Last year, Truth Social generated only $4.1 million in revenue. The platform’s net loss exceeded its revenue by more than 11 times, reaching $58 million.
By June 2024, Truth Social’s revenue was less than $2 million, and its net loss was $344 million.
